The week in one sentence: OpenAI's annualized revenue came in $20 billion lighter than the press had been saying, Canada lost 68,300 jobs in a single month, and the 10-year Treasury hit its highest level in 24 years.

Thursday started badly and got worse around midday. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion (through the end of September), well below the $70 billion figure the press had been citing for weeks. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193.34, its worst day since mid-August. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% to 7,765.36.

The selloff was surgical. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Intel 5.3%, Oracle 5.5%, and the semiconductor ETF tanked 3.4%. Anything with "AI infrastructure" in its investor deck got repriced in an afternoon.

Here is the genuinely funny part: the gap appears to be an accounting mismatch. OpenAI reports net revenue. Anthropic's headline number includes gross revenue from cloud partners like Amazon and Google. Investors were comparing the two side by side, which is a bit like comparing your take-home pay to your employer's revenue and calling it your salary. OpenAI declined to comment.

The reason markets care is structural, not personal. The entire AI trade is a mansion built on one spreadsheet assumption: that demand for AI will be enormous enough to justify the hundreds of billions being poured into data centers and chips. Every time that assumption wobbles, the whole supply chain shudders. The wobble will not be the last.

Before OpenAI stole the show, this was a bond story. The 10-year US Treasury yield pushed past 5.3% early in the week, a multi-decade high, and the TSX paid for it. On Wednesday the index fell 1.7%, down 607.65 points to 35,041.86, erasing three trading days of gains in one session. Every major Canadian bank fell roughly 2%, gold miners dropped about 3% each, and Canadian sovereign bonds sold off alongside.

Why does a US bond yield move your Canadian stocks? Because bond yields set the price of money. When a "safe" government bond pays over 5%, stocks have to compete with that, and the ones with the shakiest cash flows lose. Banks are rate-sensitive. Miners get sold when gold dips. Utilities and real estate, which behave a little like bonds, get hit too.

This matters for October 28, the Bank of Canada's next rate decision. Markets are pricing in at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, and the BoC's overnight rate already sits at 2.25%. But CIBC's economists pushed back this week with an argument worth knowing: Canada's inflation is mostly a gas story. Only 38% of Canadian CPI components are rising faster than 3% a year, versus roughly half of the US measures, and expensive gasoline accounts for about 0.8 points of Canada's one-point inflation overshoot. In their words, the timing of any BoC hike will be a made-in-Canada story, not a copy of the Fed. Capital Economics calls October a close call but expects a hold.

The jobs report that landed this morning was the week's quietest bombshell. Statistics Canada said the economy lost a net 68,300 jobs in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a gain of 9,200. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5% from 6.4%.

September followed an August that was already ugly (a loss of 41,700 jobs), and it wiped out every job gain Canada had posted this year. The economy is now down a net 41,200 jobs in 2026.

The composition is the interesting part. The biggest losses came from education services and health care and social assistance, which together shed 58,400 positions. Statistics Canada pointed to fewer international students arriving in Canada as one driver of the education decline. Manufacturing, the part of the economy most exposed to US tariffs, lost a net 12,700 jobs. This was the first full month of data since the latest round of US tariffs, but the damage was not concentrated in tariff-exposed industries, which tells you the softness is broader than the trade war.

This report is the last jobs data the Bank of Canada sees before its October 28 decision. A labour market losing 68,300 jobs in a month does not scream "hike me."

The TSX recovered some ground on Thursday, rising 0.3% to 35,144.51, with energy up 2.8%. That part is not mysterious: crude rallied hard this week, with WTI up 3.64% to $91.49 a barrel on Thursday and Brent up 4.07% to $104.28, well into triple digits, on the Iran conflict and Gulf hurricanes. Trump then said the US would not strike Iran before the November midterms, and oil gave back some of its gains. Energy producers like Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus all rose more than 1% each.

The AI wobble landed in Canada too. Celestica, the Toronto-area electronics manufacturer that has become Canada's unofficial AI-infrastructure stock, fell 4.4% to $506.58 on Thursday. On the brighter side, Richelieu Hardware jumped 11.3% to $38.59 after reporting higher third-quarter revenue, which is a reminder that individual companies still answer to their own results.

The loonie ended Thursday around 70.3 cents US. Oil above $90 should be loonie-friendly; the jobs miss and the BoC-hike pricing are pulling the other way. A weak jobs report usually argues against rate hikes, which would be good for the loonie eventually, but markets are still looking at oil and inflation first.

The Fed's minutes from its September 15-16 meeting (released Wednesday) showed a unanimous vote to hike to 3.75-4.00%. Read our breakdown of that hike in issue #001: https://looniereport.com/p/markets-this-week-fed-hikes-tsx-near-record. The next US inflation reading lands October 14, and it will set the tone for the Fed's next move.

For the typical Canadian portfolio, the important line is the AI one. The US tech giants make up a huge chunk of the all-in-one ETFs most beginners hold (XEQT, VEQT, and friends), so when Nvidia and Oracle drop 3 to 5% in a day on an OpenAI headline, your ETF feels it. That is diversification working as designed: tech drags, staples and low-volatility stocks hold the line, and you notice the difference in your statement but not in your sleep.

Nothing to your portfolio. A Thursday selloff on an accounting footnote is not a reason to touch your ETFs, and your weekly contribution (if you read issue #005: https://looniereport.com/p/invest-500-canada-starting-plan, you know the plan) does not care what OpenAI told its investors.

One thing that is worth your time: the October 28 BoC decision. If you are renewing a mortgage in the next four months, ask your lender about a rate hold. Most will lock a fixed rate for 90 to 120 days, which protects you if rates rise while still letting you take a lower one if they fall. That is the single most useful move a normal person can make this week, and it takes one phone call.

The Canadian Wire's breakdown of what the October 28 BoC decision means for your mortgage: https://www.thecanadianwire.com/news/bank-of-canada-decision-october-28-2026-what-a-hike-or-hold-means-for-your-mortg — hikes, holds, and exactly which products move with each.

The Loonie Report is for education, not advice. We are not your financial advisor, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.